Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 22.322946 23.655760 25.065267 26.673553 28.466141 30.412517 32.699051
2026-01-25 20.075344 21.881523 23.888547 26.307406 29.175958 32.512193 36.752337
2026-02-01 18.620486 20.639512 22.951451 25.835334 29.397016 33.738924 39.579895
2026-02-08 17.207359 19.289897 21.723782 24.833392 28.786928 33.776759 40.788505
2026-02-15 16.775812 19.045516 21.760115 25.325558 30.016747 36.192962 45.363410
2026-02-22 16.307971 18.709683 21.638264 25.576667 30.916463 38.219653 49.639769
2026-03-01 15.501991 17.902644 20.865980 24.912036 30.506614 38.356208 51.079172
2026-03-08 14.355550 16.616726 19.419844 23.267630 28.625334 36.212028 48.671790
2026-03-15 14.028223 16.352392 19.271742 23.346036 29.144781 37.599893 52.092741
2026-03-22 13.769160 16.159886 19.201500 23.516296 29.793534 39.224690 56.138846
2026-03-29 13.425719 15.841461 18.946215 23.408579 30.017355 40.196585 59.173546
2026-04-05 13.245683 15.727259 18.954851 23.666449 30.796063 42.118690 64.293080
2026-04-12 12.910639 15.447833 18.796700 23.781438 31.534096 44.349031 71.192664
2026-04-19 12.433225 14.965290 18.345853 23.455535 31.579293 45.457900 76.267357
2026-04-26 11.984364 14.496932 17.883897 23.070423 31.474365 46.255649 80.868066
2026-05-03 11.430750 13.863452 17.159446 22.241761 30.561265 45.428505 81.304664
2026-05-10 11.299257 13.802641 17.242190 22.649157 31.758693 48.802376 93.836148
2026-05-17 11.118222 13.663365 17.201773 22.856574 32.625724 51.673744 106.582433
2026-05-24 10.734770 13.225607 16.705849 22.306980 32.089055 51.513586 109.813178
2026-05-31 10.139613 12.474013 15.726248 20.939073 29.985677 47.759553 99.856689
2026-06-07 9.976391 12.329018 15.636130 21.004562 30.506471 49.810095 110.850150
2026-06-14 9.843595 12.221875 15.596163 21.146679 31.178075 52.312305 125.256099
2026-06-21 9.656919 12.031175 15.422762 21.056782 31.399986 53.809095 136.874363